How high will the Fed go? Published: 2022-07-29
In an effort to stave off inflation the Federal Reserve began its current hiking cycle earlier this year. The rate of increase has been remarkable.
The main way the Fed affects economic activity is through mortgage rates, which move in lockstep with the 10-year Treasury, but the 10-year is only indirectly influenced by Fed policy.
In anticipation of the Fed's actions, the bond market has sent the 10-year yield soaring (in relative terms) over the last few months, and mortgage rates have followed along.
How high will they go?
This chart plots the effective Federal Funds rate (red) and the 10-year Treasury yield (blue). One thing that jumps out is how the Federal Funds rate tends to rise during hiking cycles until it crosses above the 10-year yield.
Almost immediately it stops rising and a short time later it begins to fall. Will this happen again? Who knows?
Here's the same chart updated since the Fed raised rates on July 27. It won't take much more of a down move in the 10-year yield over the next few months to get the crossover mentioned above.
The end of the Fed hiking cycle is near.
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